The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration over the Mambilla Hydropower Project as a major financial and economic reprieve, saying it has potentially shielded the country from more than $3.38 billion in claims.
The ICC tribunal rejected claims brought by Sunrise Power against the Federal Government, including the company’s $2.35 billion demand arising from the long-running dispute over the 3,960-megawatt project.
It also rejected a separate $400 million claim connected to a proposed settlement, according to TSF, which said the outcome represented a significant development for Nigeria’s finances, power sector and broader economic prospects.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, the group said the significance of the ruling extended beyond the courtroom.
“For Nigeria’s economy, the decision represents the avoidance of a potentially substantial financial liability, the recovery of legal costs and, potentially, the removal of a long-standing legal obstacle to one of the country’s most ambitious power projects,” TSF said.
The forum noted that the Mambilla project had remained one of Nigeria’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities, with the prolonged legal dispute constituting an additional obstacle to a project capable of significantly expanding the country’s electricity generation capacity.
TSF said the arbitration outcome came at a critical time for the Tinubu administration as it works to address longstanding financial and structural challenges in the electricity sector.
It noted that the Federal Government was implementing a plan to settle ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy power-sector obligations.
According to the group, the scale of the claims rejected in the Mambilla dispute was particularly significant, with the $3.38 billion figure it cited exceeding the government’s $2.3 billion legacy power-sector settlement programme.
“Eliminating this major liability prevents a massive financial drain, giving the government the necessary fiscal headroom to address inherited obligations and focus on sustainable power sector reforms,” TSF said.
The forum further argued that completing the Mambilla project could have economic implications beyond additional electricity generation.
It said increased grid capacity could support manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors, while creating opportunities for businesses, employment and investment.
TSF also said the arbitration outcome could send a signal to international investors that Nigeria was prepared to defend its economic interests through established international dispute-resolution mechanisms while observing contractual and legal processes.
The forum urged the Federal Government to build on the outcome by accelerating the next phase of the Mambilla project, while maintaining transparency, commercial discipline and strong contractual safeguards.
“The Mambilla project must now move from prolonged dispute to disciplined implementation,” the group said.
