By Niyi Akinsiju
As Nigeria approaches another pivotal electoral cycle, a dangerous political habit threatens to hijack the national debate: elevating grievance over governance and reaction over vision. Across political channels, the conversation remains trapped in the management of short term hardship, piecemeal subsidies and ethnic arithmetic. But managing scarcity is not an economic strategy. Grievance will not industrialise a nation.
It is time to shift the conversation from the politics of sentiment to the politics of numbers.
Nigeria’s fundamental constraint has never been a lack of entrepreneurial energy or talent. It has been a chronic shortage of domestic capital to finance transformative infrastructure. When an economy reaches a $1 trillion valuation, it undergoes a fundamental transformation. It moves from a low yield, import dependent system towards a higher capacity, wealth generating ecosystem.
A $1 trillion economy could also strengthen Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile and deepen its access to long term global private capital, including pension assets, institutional funds and foreign direct investment. Such capital can help finance deep water ports, rail corridors and power infrastructure.
Crucially, when international private capital participates more extensively in national infrastructure financing, government borrowing can place less pressure on domestic credit markets. This could free up more lending capacity for local businesses, particularly small and medium sized enterprises.
To those who argue that a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is unrealistic, the macroeconomic trajectory presents a different case. The structural adjustments and painful foundational reforms have already begun. By removing the fuel subsidy and ending currency arbitrage, the current administration has sought to redirect resources towards productive activity.
Following the mid 2025 national accounts rebasing, Nigeria’s economy stood at $377.37 billion. Real GDP growth expanded to 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, while external reserves stood at $54.08 billion. Taken together, these indicators suggest that the country has a stronger macroeconomic platform from which to pursue accelerated growth.
This brings the debate to an important question: what is the alternative?
The burden of proof should now extend to every political platform seeking to govern Nigeria. It is no longer enough to criticise the discomfort associated with economic reforms without presenting a credible alternative for achieving sustained growth.
Any candidate who claims readiness to lead a modern Nigeria should show the numbers. What is the pathway to $1 trillion? What sectors will drive the required expansion? Where will the capital come from? What deregulation measures will be implemented? How will productivity be increased and more than 50 per cent of the informal workforce brought into the formal economy?
These are not merely campaign questions. They are questions about the scale of ambition required to transform Nigeria’s economy.
A presidential manifesto that does not articulate a credible pathway towards a substantially larger and more productive economy risks perpetuating an era of incrementalism and short term interventions.
Nigeria needs an economy capable of generating opportunities at the scale demanded by its population. A $1 trillion economy would not, by itself, solve the country’s economic challenges. But pursuing that level of economic output would require the scale of investment, productivity, industrialisation and institutional reform necessary to convert Nigeria’s demographic weight into a major economic asset.
The blueprint must therefore go beyond macroeconomic stabilisation. The next phase is about production, investment, productivity and scale.
The time for serious economic politics is now.
Dr Niyi Akinsiju is the Chairman of the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI).
