Political psychologist and campaign strategist Valentin Bianki has presented the English edition of his book, Politics in Nigeria: Elites and Voters, offering fresh analysis of electoral competition, voter behaviour and political power ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The book was unveiled at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja during a public forum that examined the implications of the 2023 general elections and the political trends shaping Nigeria’s next electoral cycle. Discussions focused on voter mobilisation, regional representation, democratic competition and the evolving balance of political power.
Drawing on electoral data and original research, Bianki argued that Nigeria’s democratic experience should be assessed through the competitiveness of its elections and the ability of political challengers to contest established power structures. He described the 2023 presidential election as the most open contest since Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999.
According to the research, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the election with 36.6 per cent of the vote, the lowest winning share recorded in a presidential contest since 1999. The study argues that the election demonstrated a high level of political competition, with four major candidates attracting significant support across different parts of the country.
A key finding of the book challenges assumptions about the electoral impact of online popularity. Analysing 5.9 million Twitter accounts and 2.3 million tweets, the research found that while Peter Obi dominated much of the online political conversation during the campaign, digital engagement did not translate directly into electoral success. The study cites low voter turnout, geographical variations in support and the strength of established political networks as factors that shaped the final outcome.
The book also explores the relationship between electoral outcomes, cabinet appointments and federal resource allocation. Using a dataset of ministerial appointments since 2010, the research suggests a correlation between electoral support for a presidential candidate and the level of cabinet representation allocated to geopolitical zones.
It also identifies a relationship between cabinet representation and federal transfers across regions, excluding the South-South from that comparison.
Among the findings presented were shifts in regional representation after the 2023 elections, including a decline in the North-West’s share of cabinet positions from 27 per cent to 19 per cent and a reduction in its share of federal transfers from 16 per cent to 14 per cent.
The study further points to a generational shift in Nigeria’s political leadership. According to the research, the average year of birth of ministers in President Tinubu’s cabinet is 1966, compared with 1957 under the administrations of former Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari. The proportion of ministers born after 1971 increased from three per cent to 20 per cent.
Looking towards the 2027 elections, Bianki said opposition success would depend not only on public dissatisfaction but also on the ability to build effective political organisations and mobilise voters nationwide.
He argued that organisation and coalition-building are likely to be decisive factors in the next electoral contest. Published by Fortis Press, the 292-page book examines the 2023 elections, the first two years of the Tinubu administration and the recruitment of Nigeria’s political elite.
The publication draws on more than 550 references and original research conducted by the author and his team.
