The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has identified new tax laws and sustained macroeconomic stability as key drivers expected to expand Nigeria’s economy by at least 5.5 per cent in 2026.
In its latest policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank said 2026 would mark a boom year for Nigeria, citing the Federal Government’s unwavering commitment to economic reforms initiated in 2023.
According to IMPI, the economy has remained well-managed despite initial headwinds that followed the implementation of reforms.
“For us, understanding the background to the current developments and the philosophical underpinning of the economy, we submit that the year 2026 would be Nigeria’s boom year yet,” the statement said.
IMPI noted that the tax reforms which took effect on January 1, 2026, are projected to significantly improve Nigeria’s tax mobilisation and strengthen federation revenues through phased implementation, tighter compliance enforcement, expanded use of digital revenue systems, and improved remittance discipline across revenue generating agencies.
The group said the reforms would also redefine how manufacturers operate, invest, and plan for growth, describing the new fiscal framework as more coordinated and incentive driven.
At the centre of the reforms are newly introduced Economic Development Tax Incentives targeting priority sectors such as manufacturing.
Under the scheme, eligible companies can obtain an Economic Development Incentive Certificate, granting a five per cent annual tax credit on qualifying capital expenditure for up to five years. Firms that reinvest profits may access longer incentive periods, while certain manufacturing related transactions are exempt from stamp duties.
IMPI also cited increasing capital acquisition by private sector operators as a major indicator of economic expansion.
It noted that Nigerian companies across sectors including oil and gas, telecommunications, banking, industrial goods and agriculture are actively acquiring property, plant, and equipment to expand operations and strengthen market positions.
Key transactions in 2025 include MTN Nigeria Communications Plc’s capital acquisition of N539.6 billion, Presco Plc’s 10,000 hectare plantation acquisition in Cross River State, and Ellah Lakes Plc’s acquisition of over 11,700 hectares across four states.
According to the think tank, these large scale investments are aimed at boosting production capacity, meeting consumer demand, and reducing reliance on imports.
IMPI further observed that Nigeria has moved up 15 places to rank fourth in Africa for foreign exchange accessibility, according to the Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2025.
It attributed the improvement to sweeping foreign exchange reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), noting that enhanced FX accessibility is critical to improving the ease of doing business and attracting foreign direct investment.
The statement added that foreign direct investment inflows rose to $720 million in the third quarter of 2025, while portfolio investment climbed to $2.51 billion, reflecting increased non resident participation in domestic debt and equity markets.
IMPI projected a further rise in foreign direct investment in 2026 alongside improved access to foreign exchange.
The think tank also envisaged continued macroeconomic stability, which it said would further enhance manufacturing output and private sector development.
“Macroeconomic stability is the cornerstone of any successful effort to increase private sector development and economic growth,” IMPI stated, noting that global data shows growth, investment and productivity are positively correlated with stable economic conditions.